Matt Youmans, a host and sports betting columnist at VSiN, has a few rules he abides by before placing his NFL bets for the week.
“When I bet the NFL, I never lay more than seven points,” Youmans says. “I rarely lay more than three.”
That’s sound advice, but his other rule has saved him plenty of money over the years, too. Stay away as far as you can from the Jacksonville Jaguars at all times, Youmans strongly advised while discussing their Week 9 road matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Now that doesn’t mean he’s going to take the Eagles at -7.5 because that’s breaking one of the betting rules. But there’s no chance that Youmans will risk being burned by the Jaguars again, even with all the points they’re being spotted in Philadelphia.
“I’m not going to bet the Jaguars because they can find ways to self-destruct,” Youmans says. “You’ll be sitting there Sunday night saying, ‘How could I be this much of an idiot to bet the Jaguars?’ I’m not going to do it.”
I didn’t have the courage to tell Youmans I took the Jaguars in our pick’em challenge this week because he’s right. You should rarely trust the Jaguars, but I tend to have one ridiculous pick every week because upsets happen frequently in the NFL, like the Cleveland Browns beating the Baltimore Ravens last week. Now picking the Jaguars straight up with no money on the line is not as foolish as actually placing money on Doug Pederson’s team.
So, yes, listen to Youmans’s rules. Avoid the Jaguars and stick with closer lines when picking favorites. But Youmans is high on the Eagles, who have won by 20 points or more the past two weeks against the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants.
“Everybody in Philadelphia lacks patience,” says Youmans, who has a few future bets on the Eagles (5–2) winning the NFC East and Super Bowl LIX. “And I think in the NFL in general, fans, media, everybody lacks patience and they want to see the results immediately, but man, you gotta think big picture. I still think this Philadelphia team has a lot of talent. They’re going to be O.K. down the road.”
As for another game with a sizable spread, the Denver Broncos are +9 road underdogs against the Ravens, who have losses to the Browns and Las Vegas Raiders this season. Youmans will probably avoid this game, too, because he’s not high on the Broncos, despite them winning five of their past six games. But Youmans had an encouraging stat for those taking the points and the Broncos: Lamar Jackson is 2–11–1 against the spread in his past 14 games when Baltimore is favored by seven points or more.
“I do not play the Ravens when they’re bigger home favorites because a lot of times they fall asleep at the wheel,” Youmans says. “Now they are coming off a loss, which is a good situation, because the Ravens off a loss is typically a better bet, so that’s going to keep me off the Broncos here.”
Youmans doesn’t have a “Don’t bet on the New York Jets” rule, but he might soon if they don’t cover against the Houston Texans on Halloween. New York is laying -1.5 points as home favorites vs. a Houston team that won’t have wide receivers Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs.
Public bettors might be supporting the Texans because they have a 6–2 record and the Jets have lost five consecutive games during their disappointing season. But Youmans is banking on the Jets playing with pride because this is a must-win game for Aaron Rodgers & Co. Also, the Texans have struggled in most of their games and have won in ugly fashion.
“Texans are one of the luckiest teams in the league right now,” Youmans says. “Texans squeaking by in a lot of these games. I think the Jets, if they have any pride, and they should, are going to show up with a big effort Thursday night. This is my last shot with the Jets, so if they don’t win this game, the wheels are going to completely fall off.”
If the Jets can pick the right kicker maybe this bet isn’t a bad idea. Greg Zuerlein, who had a few costly missed kicks earlier this season, won’t be kicking for the Jets anymore after being placed on injured reserve this week.
It’s not easy betting on NFL games, but just don’t forget Youmans’s rules and it shouldn’t be so bad. … maybe.
“You bet on the NFL every week, it ages you,” Youmans jokes.
Manzano’s NFL Week 9 Betting Tips
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Stick with the trend: Rams (-1.5) at Seahawks
Youmans had another fascinating stat about a starting quarterback. Geno Smith is 3–9 at home against the spread the past two seasons. The Seattle Seahawks got crushed at home by the Buffalo Bills last week, and also didn’t cover in home losses to the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers earlier this season.
The public might be riding the Los Angeles Rams after their impressive win against the Minnesota Vikings, which could be a bad thing. But the Seahawks can’t be trusted. Also, the Rams are whole again with healthy wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Enticing Bet: Packers (+3.5) vs. Lions
Jordan Love said he has a realistic shot at playing against the Lions. Maybe that’s his way of giving the opponent more to think about, but even if Malik Willis gets the start this could still be a good play because the Packers are at home and they’re 3–0 in games that Willis has played in this season.
This is similar to last week when Washington Commanders’ bettors got 2.5 points early in the week before Jayden Daniels was cleared to play against the Chicago Bears.
Moneyline Dog: Panthers (+280) vs. Saints
Derek Carr is set to return after missing the past three games, but the Saints were pretty bad before he got hurt. New Orleans has a six-game losing streak heading into Sunday’s divisional road battle vs. the Carolina Panthers, who have a five-game losing streak. Maybe the Panthers play their best football with Tuesday’s trade deadline fast approaching. Either play well to get traded to a contender or play well to possibly get a second contract in Carolina. It’s a win-win situation.
Not So Risky: Falcons (-3) vs. Cowboys
It was tough picking a safe bet this week for multiple reasons, including the wide spreads and favorites that can’t be trusted. No way I’m backing the Tennessee Titans even against the New England Patriots. I considered the Texans because it’s a bit surprising that they’re the underdogs against the reeling Jets—J.J. Watt was definitely surprised by the line. But I won’t fall for the Las Vegas trap. Instead, I’ll bet against the Cowboys. That’s been a safe bet this season.
Stay Away: Commanders (-3.5) at Giants
I’ll side with Youmans on this one after mentioning valid points about each team. The Commanders might still be riding the high from the Hail Mary walk-off victory last week against the Bears and could be headed for a trap game against a tough Giants defense. And we all know about Daniel Jones’s struggles, especially in home games. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in front of his home fans in nearly two years. The Giants only have one touchdown in four home games this season.
Parlay: Broncos (+9) at Ravens; Browns (+1.5) vs. Chargers; Bears (+1.5) at Cardinals
The Broncos might be playoff pretenders, but they’re not a bad team, as evidenced by winning five of their past six games. I think they’ll hang with the Ravens to at least cover the nine points. The Browns might be a different team with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback. No team is itching more to get back on the field than the Bears after last week’s disastrous ending in Washington.
Survivor Pool: Bengals (-325) vs. Raiders
If you’ve gotten this far, you probably didn’t let the Bengals burn you when they lost to the Patriots and Commanders as heavy favorites earlier this season. Trust them here against the fast-fading Raiders, who might have the worst offense in the NFL. The Bengals are overrated, but they’re capable of beating Gardner Minshew II’s Raiders.
Best Over/Under Total: Dolphins-Bills (over 49, -108)
The Bills’ offense has been unstoppable since acquiring wide receiver Amari Cooper. Count on them to score at least 30 points for the third consecutive week. The Miami Dolphins are capable of holding up their end with Tua Tagovailoa returning last week.
